TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 20, 7:11 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Alafia ayeni and Li Tu in the San Diego 2, USA, Qualifying, originally scheduled for September 20, 2026 at 4:20PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alafia ayeni' if Alafia ayeni advances against Li Tu. This market will resolve to 'Li Tu' if Li Tu advances against Alafia ayeni. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Alafia ayeni and Li Tu in the San Diego 2, USA, Qualifying, originally scheduled for September 20, 2026 at 4:20PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alafia ayeni' if Alafia ayeni advances against Li Tu. This market will resolve to 'Li Tu' if Li Tu advances against Alafia ayeni. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, but may also incorporate a profit margin. This market, driven by individual traders on Polymarket, may more quickly incorporate new information or react to shifts in public opinion. While sportsbooks may adjust their odds based on betting action, prediction markets allow anyone to express their view, potentially leading to more accurate probabilities, especially as the event approaches. It's common to see discrepancies, though they often converge closer to the event date.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy shares in a particular outcome, its price increases, and the implied probability rises. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price reflects the collective intelligence of all participants, and is constantly adjusting based on new information and changing sentiment. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds remain a real-time assessment of the event's likelihood.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Alafia ayeni vs Li Tu match. The platform will verify the result against sources like official tournament websites or recognized sports news outlets. Resolution is dependent on a definitive outcome being declared for the match, and any disputes will be handled according to Polymarket’s guidelines. The final price of shares will reflect the actual result of the match.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding the players’ form, injuries, or changes to their training regimens could significantly shift the odds. Unexpected announcements about match conditions or venue changes could also have an impact. Public sentiment, as reflected in social media or expert analysis, can also play a role, especially if it deviates from initial expectations. Major upsets in related matches or tournaments could also influence traders' perceptions of the players’ chances, leading to price movements in this market.