TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 11, 8:44 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional baseball game between two teams, focusing on the margin of victory. The result depends on which team wins and by how many runs they win. Each market corresponds to a different run differential threshold for either team to satisfy the condition.
The event consists of four markets, each defining a specific run-differential threshold for either the Samsung Lions or the Kia Tigers to win the game scheduled for August 11, 2026. If the Kia Tigers win by more than 2.5 runs, the first market resolves to Yes. If the Kia Tigers win by more than 1.5 runs, the second market resolves to Yes. If the Samsung Lions win by more than 1.5 runs, the third market resolves to Yes. Finally, if the Samsung Lions win by more than 2.5 runs, the fourth market resolves to Yes. All markets are independent, and each has its own resolution criteria based solely on the run difference between the two teams at the end of the game. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds in this market often reflect a different outlook than traditional sportsbook lines. While sportsbooks may incorporate sharp lines and adjustments, prediction markets capture crowd-sourced sentiment and can shift more rapidly based on trader activity, injuries, or weather conditions. Traders should compare both to spot potential value or divergence in expectations.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, this market is priced through trader submissions that set the probability of each possible run differential outcome. The current top outcome reflects the consensus view among participants, with liquidity indicated by the volume of $8,785. Prices adjust continuously as new information emerges and traders place orders.
This market resolves around Aug 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final run difference between the two teams will determine which side of the spread is correct, and the market will settle accordingly based on official game results.