TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 29, 3:41 AM EST
Polymarket
Sam Smith's new album 'Hazel Eyes' is expected to release August 21, 2026. This market will resolve according to the debut week sales for Sam Smith's album 'Hazel Eyes', according to Hits Daily Double. If the album 'Hazel Eyes' has not been released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the album's debut week sales fall exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the "HITS TOP 50" list found at https://hitsdailydouble.com/sales_plus_streaming, specifically, the figure in the column titled "Activity", once the results are finalized for the album's debut week. If this resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Sam Smith's new album 'Hazel Eyes' is expected to release August 21, 2026. This market will resolve according to the debut week sales for Sam Smith's album 'Hazel Eyes', according to Hits Daily Double. If the album 'Hazel Eyes' has not been released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the album's debut week sales fall exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the "HITS TOP 50" list found at https://hitsdailydouble.com/sales_plus_streaming, specifically, the figure in the column titled "Activity", once the results are finalized for the album's debut week. If this resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different outlook than many analyst forecasts. While some industry experts predict strong sales based on pre-release buzz, this market shows a more balanced or divergent probability distribution. Traders are pricing in variables like fan engagement and chart competition that analysts might weight differently, creating a useful contrast for evaluating market sentiment against professional expectations.
This market resolves around Aug 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Official sales data from recognized music industry sources will determine whether the first-week album sales meet the specified thresholds, closing the market based on transparent, publicly available results.
Media coverage of early streaming numbers, social media buzz around singles or music videos, and any last-minute promotional events could shift this market. If early review scores are released or chart competition heats up, traders may adjust odds quickly. Any surprise announcements — like award nominations or collaboration features — might also create volatility as participants reassess likely sales performance.