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404,028

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2,681

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5

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Saitama Seibu Lions vs. Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks
kalshi
polymarket

Saitama Seibu Lions vs. Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks

Volume:
$23,303

Saitama Seibu Lions vs. Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks

 - Polymarket

Saitama Seibu Lions vs. Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 9, 2026

Closed: Aug 9, 9:09 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Saitama Seibu Lions vs. Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks

View
0%
63%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,042
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Fukuoka Hawks wins by over 1.5 runs

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,351
N/A
N/A
$2,950
Settled
No
kalshi

Saitama Seibu Lions wins by over 1.5 runs

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,952
N/A
N/A
$3,688
Settled
No
kalshi

Saitama Seibu Lions wins by over 2.5 runs

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$525
N/A
N/A
$525
Settled
No
kalshi

Fukuoka Hawks wins by over 2.5 runs

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$433
N/A
N/A
$433
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This event group covers outcomes from an upcoming NPB baseball game between the Saitama Seibu Lions and the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks. The markets differ in their resolution criteria, with one focusing on the simple win condition and the other on run differentials.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Fundamental divergence in resolution logic: Polymarket uses a simple win/loss/draw outcome while Kalshi uses run differential thresholdsHero tip: Avoid cross-platform arbitrage between these markets. A Saitama Seibu Lions win by exactly 2 runs would resolve Polymarket as Lions but Kalshi as No. Focus trading on the platform whose resolution logic aligns with your outlook.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to the winning team name (Saitama Seibu Lions or Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks). If postponed, remains open; if canceled or tied, resolves 50-50. Source: Official NPB information.
  • Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if either team wins by specified run margins (>1.5 or >2.5 runs). No other outcomes resolve to anything else. No mention of handling for postponements or cancellations.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming NPB game, scheduled for August 9 at 4:00AM ET: If the Saitama Seibu Lions win, the market will resolve to "Saitama Seibu Lions". If the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks win, the market will resolve to "Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the NPB. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the margin of victory in the Fukuoka Hawks vs Saitama Seibu Lions game scheduled for August 8, 2026. If the Saitama Seibu Lions win by more than 2.5 runs, the 'Saitama Seibu Lions wins by over 2.5 runs' market closes as Yes, and the 'Saitama Seibu Lions wins by over 1.5 runs' market also resolves positively. Conversely, if the Fukuoka Hawks win by more than 1.5 runs, the 'Fukuoka Hawks wins by over 1.5 runs' market resolves to Yes, as does the 'Fukuoka Hawks wins by over 2.5 runs' market when their victory exceeds 2.5 runs. Each market is independent but interconnected through the game's final score differential, with specific thresholds defining resolution. The secondary rules clarify that Kalshi holds no official ties to the Japan NPB league, and all branding remains property of respective owners.