TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 28, 9:58 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets evaluates the total number of goals scored in an upcoming soccer match between Saint Lucia and Bermuda. Each market corresponds to a different threshold of goals, determining whether the match outcome exceeds that threshold. The resolution depends solely on the final score after regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The markets resolve based on whether the total goals scored by both Saint Lucia and Bermuda in their CONCACAF Nations League match scheduled for September 28, 2026, exceed specified thresholds (0.5, 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, or 5.5 goals). The resolution occurs after 90 minutes of regular play plus any stoppage time, but explicitly excludes goals scored during extra time or penalty kicks. All markets share the same event context and timing, with each threshold representing a distinct outcome criterion. Kalshi clarifies it holds no official affiliation with CONCACAF, and all related trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, and can sometimes differ from sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for profit margins, while this market is driven purely by supply and demand. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook’s line is inaccurate, they can express that view by trading contracts in this market, potentially leading to price divergence. It’s common to see prediction markets offer a more accurate forecast, especially as the event approaches and more information becomes available.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different total goal outcomes for the Saint Lucia vs Bermuda match. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy into a particular outcome, its price increases, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to aggregate information and generate a forecast based on the collective intelligence of the crowd. The current price essentially represents a real-time probability assessment.
This market resolves around Sep 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final total goals scored in the Saint Lucia vs Bermuda match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result declared by the governing sporting body for this competition. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct total goals will receive a payout of 100 cents per contract, while those holding contracts for incorrect outcomes will receive nothing. The platform will verify the result and distribute payouts accordingly following the match’s completion.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market. Any news regarding team injuries, suspensions, or changes in team form could significantly shift trader sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions on match day could also play a role, potentially affecting the style of play and the likelihood of goals. Additionally, late-breaking news about tactical approaches or key player matchups could cause the market to react. Even public opinion, as reflected in polls or analyst predictions, might influence trading activity and move the prices of contracts until the match concludes.