TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 28, 9:58 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a soccer match between Saint Lucia and Bermuda, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. It evaluates whether the winning team achieves a specified goal differential threshold set in different markets. The result is determined solely by the final score after regular time, excluding extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event consists of four distinct markets, each evaluating different goal-differential thresholds for either Saint Lucia or Bermuda to win the match. For Saint Lucia, two markets assess victories by more than 2.5 goals and more than 1.5 goals. For Bermuda, two markets assess victories by more than 1.5 goals and more than 2.5 goals. All markets resolve based on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with no consideration for extra time or penalty phases. The outcome of each market is independent, meaning a single match result can trigger resolution for multiple markets if the score meets their respective thresholds. Kalshi explicitly states it holds no official affiliation with CONCACAF, and all associated trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of participants, potentially differing from those offered by traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market aggregates the views of many individuals with varying levels of knowledge. It's common to see discrepancies emerge, especially when there's significant public interest or disagreement about the likely outcome. These differences can present opportunities for arbitrage, where traders attempt to profit from the price variations between the two venues.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders submit bids and asks for contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movement is driven by supply and demand; if more people believe Saint Lucia will win by a certain margin, the price of contracts reflecting that outcome will increase, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to create a fair and efficient market for predicting the result of the Saint Lucia vs Bermuda match.
This market resolves around Sep 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result of the Saint Lucia vs Bermuda match, specifically the spread, will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The resolution will be based on the official result declared by the governing body of the competition. Traders holding contracts on the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect outcomes will forfeit their investment. The market’s resolution is independent of any individual’s opinion or interpretation.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market leading up to Sep 29, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or unexpected weather conditions could significantly shift the perceived probabilities. Major upsets in other matches involving these teams, or shifts in public sentiment expressed through polls or social media, could also have an impact. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed participants could indicate new information or a change in market expectations, causing prices to move rapidly. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding potential shifts in this market.