TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 13, 12:17 AM EST
Kalshi
These markets track how decisively either team wins the first half of an upcoming college football game. Each market corresponds to a specific point margin threshold, allowing participants to speculate on the relative performance of the teams during the initial 30 minutes of play.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the first half of the designated college football game. If Fresno State wins the first half by exceeding the specified point margin, the corresponding "Fresno St. wins 1H by over X points" market resolves to Yes, while all Sacramento State markets resolve to No. Conversely, if Sacramento State wins the first half by exceeding its specified margin, its corresponding market resolves to Yes and all Fresno State markets resolve to No. If neither team meets their respective threshold, all markets resolve to No. For games postponed but starting within 48 hours of the original time, markets remain open and resolve based on the actual result. If a game does not start within 48 hours, all markets resolve to a fair price. Only the first half's official score counts toward resolution.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market allows traders to freely buy and sell contracts, theoretically leading to a more accurate assessment of probabilities. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply the dynamics of each market. It’s common to see this market adjust more rapidly to new information than sportsbook lines, as it incorporates a wider range of opinions and analyses.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders submit bids and asks for contracts representing different point spreads. The current price of a contract indicates the probability of that spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to set prices that accurately reflect their beliefs, as they profit from correctly predicting the outcome. The market dynamically adjusts as new information becomes available and traders update their assessments of the game's likely result.
This market resolves around Sep 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the first half spread is verifiable from credible public reporting. The official result, as determined by the game's official statistics, will be used to determine which contracts pay out. Contracts predicting the correct spread will settle at 100, while those predicting an incorrect spread will settle at 0. The resolution process is designed to be transparent and based on objective data, ensuring a fair outcome for all participants.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Sacramento St. or Fresno St. teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they favor one team's playing style, could also move the market. Additionally, late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions, as well as public betting patterns in sportsbooks, could all contribute to shifts in the price of contracts in this market.