TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 20, 9:09 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Sacramento Republic and San Antonio in the USL Championship league. It focuses on the margin of victory for either team, determining whether the winning team achieves a specified goal differential threshold. The result is based solely on the final score after regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates different goal-differential thresholds for determining the winner of the Sacramento Republic vs San Antonio professional USL Championship soccer match scheduled for September 20, 2026. Resolution occurs based on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with no consideration given to extra time or penalty phases. Four distinct outcome criteria exist: Sacramento Republic winning by more than 2.5 goals, Sacramento Republic winning by more than 1.5 goals, San Antonio winning by more than 1.5 goals, and San Antonio winning by more than 2.5 goals. Each criterion represents an independent condition under which the respective market would resolve positively. The governing rules explicitly state that the platform is not affiliated with the league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, aiming to balance action on both sides. This market, however, allows anyone to trade, and the resulting prices can incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives. It's common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. Comparing the two can reveal where the crowd disagrees with conventional wisdom.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to find an equilibrium. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Price movements are driven by supply and demand; if more people believe the Sacramento Republic will win by a certain margin, the price of that outcome will increase, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to represent the collective intelligence of the traders.
This market resolves around Sep 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread will be determined by the official result of the Sacramento Republic vs San Antonio match. The market will settle based on the final score difference, reflecting whether the Republic wins by more or less than the specified spread. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on the incorrect outcome will forfeit their stake.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Sacramento Republic or San Antonio could significantly shift expectations. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions leading up to the match could also impact trading activity. Unexpected announcements about player availability or changes in coaching strategy would likely cause price fluctuations. Public sentiment and media coverage surrounding the match can also play a role in shaping market prices.