TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 164M
- Kalshi
Above 164M - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 11, 2026
Latest in Entertainment
Closed: Jul 11, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks Sabrina Carpenter's worldwide streaming performance during a specific week in July 2026. Streaming data is collected from major platforms and reported by Luminate Data, with results typically available within 48 hours of the tracking period ending.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by Sabrina Carpenter's total worldwide streams during the July 03 - July 09, 2026 tracking week as reported by Luminate Data. Each outcome corresponds to a specific streaming threshold, with Yes resolution occurring if the artist exceeds the designated threshold for that particular outcome. Data is sourced from the official tracking week and published within approximately 48 hours of period completion.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they aggregate real-time bets from many participants with direct financial incentive to be accurate. While entertainment analysts may rely on historical patterns and public statements, this market reflects live trader conviction weighted by capital at risk. Comparing the two reveals whether the crowd is more bullish or bearish than expert consensus, and can highlight emerging signals—like unexpected scheduling changes or fan engagement trends—that haven't yet reached mainstream analysis.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing different streaming frequency outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each outcome reflects the collective willingness of buyers and sellers to transact at that level, with tighter spreads indicating higher confidence and liquidity. As new information surfaces—schedule announcements, platform changes, or shifts in her content strategy—traders adjust their positions, moving prices to reflect updated expectations about weekly streaming activity.
This market resolves around Jul 13, 2026, at which point the outcome is confirmed against credible public sources documenting her actual streaming frequency during the relevant period. The resolution hinges on verifiable data about how many times she streamed in the specified week, measured through official platform records and widely reported metrics. Once the event window closes and the data is finalized, the market settles according to which outcome bracket her activity falls into.
Key catalysts include official announcements about her streaming schedule, changes to platform partnerships or exclusivity deals, and real-time streaming activity as the resolution period approaches. Major life events, touring schedules, or new project launches could shift her availability and streaming frequency. Fan engagement metrics and social media signals about demand for streams may also influence trader positioning. As the end date nears, actual weekly stream counts will become the dominant price driver, with early data points triggering sharp repricing if they diverge from market expectations.
