TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 165M
- Kalshi
Above 165M - Kalshi
1W
News
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 4, 2026
Closed: Jul 4, 2:30 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks Sabrina Carpenter's worldwide streaming performance during the week of June 26 - July 02, 2026. Streaming data is collected from major music platforms globally and published by Luminate Data, typically within 48 hours after the tracking week ends.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by Sabrina Carpenter's total worldwide streams during the June 26 - July 02, 2026 tracking week, as reported by Luminate Data. Each outcome corresponds to a specific streaming threshold, with resolution occurring when streams exceed the designated level. Data publication typically occurs within approximately 48 hours following the end of the tracking period. Luminate Data serves as the neutral provider of market metrics and does not endorse or participate in prediction market outcomes.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds reflect real-money trader conviction and often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because markets incorporate live information and continuous price discovery. While entertainment analysts may rely on historical patterns or public statements, this market aggregates the collective judgment of participants who have financial incentive to forecast accurately. Comparing current odds to expert predictions can reveal where the market is pricing in surprises or where consensus is strongest around streaming frequency expectations.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through continuous order-matching between buyers and sellers, with odds reflecting the probability traders assign to different streaming frequency outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each contract trades independently, and the price you see represents the marginal trade—the last transaction executed. As new information surfaces or sentiment shifts, traders adjust their bids and asks, causing the odds to move in real time and creating opportunities for those who believe the current price misprices the likelihood of the event.
This market resolves around Jul 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the streaming frequency data is verifiable from credible public sources. The resolution hinges on documented evidence of how many times Sabrina Carpenter streams during the specified period, measured against the predefined thresholds established for each outcome option. Once the event window closes and the final count is established, the market settles accordingly and all positions are paid out based on the verified result.
Key catalysts include official announcements about her streaming schedule, changes to her platform or content strategy, and real-time streaming activity as the resolution date approaches. Social media updates, interviews, or tour schedules that affect her availability can shift trader expectations significantly. As the market approaches Jul 6, 2026, actual streaming counts will narrow uncertainty, causing odds to converge toward the true outcome. Early weeks in the tracking period provide the most volatility, while late-stage data reduces speculation and locks in the final result.
