TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 170M
- Kalshi
Above 170M - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 27, 2026
Closed: Jun 27, 3:40 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks Sabrina Carpenter's worldwide streaming performance during the week of June 19-25, 2026. Streaming data is collected from Luminate Data, LLC, a neutral provider of music metrics, and published approximately 48 hours after the tracking week ends.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by Sabrina Carpenter's total worldwide streams during the June 19-25, 2026 tracking week, as reported by Luminate Data, LLC. The event features tiered thresholds ranging from 170 million to 180 million streams, with each threshold representing a distinct resolution outcome. Data publication occurs approximately 48 hours after the tracking week concludes. Luminate Data, LLC serves as a neutral metrics provider and does not endorse or participate in prediction market outcomes.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds and traditional analyst forecasts often diverge because they operate on different incentive structures. Market participants risk real capital on outcomes, creating a financial penalty for inaccuracy that can sharpen predictions. Analysts may rely on historical trends or public statements, whereas this market aggregates dispersed information from traders with direct exposure to the outcome. When odds shift meaningfully from analyst consensus, it may signal new information or a reassessment of underlying assumptions about streaming behavior.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders submit bids and asks for shares tied to specific outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each outcome reflects the marginal trade—the last executed transaction—and moves as new orders flow in. Traders profit by buying low and selling high, or by holding shares until resolution if they believe the current price undervalues the true probability. The platform's matching engine ensures transparent price discovery and tight spreads during active trading periods.
This market resolves around Jun 29, 2026, at which point the outcome is confirmed using credible public sources. The resolution hinges on verifiable data about streaming frequency during the contract period, assessed against the specific outcome criteria defined at market creation. Once the event window closes and data becomes available, the platform will settle all shares based on which outcome occurred. Traders holding winning shares receive their payout, while losing shares expire worthless.
Several catalysts could shift odds significantly before settlement. Public announcements about new content drops, tour schedules, or platform partnerships may influence expected streaming frequency. Changes in the artist's social media activity or statements about content plans could trigger repricing. Industry events—such as shifts in streaming platform policies or competitor activity—may also affect trader expectations. Real-time streaming data releases or unexpected schedule changes would likely prompt sharp moves as traders update their probability estimates.
