TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 19, 12:43 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match in Germany's third-tier league between two teams. The result depends solely on the final score after the standard playing time, excluding any extra periods or penalty shootouts. Outcomes include victories for either competing team or a draw.
The event resolves based on the result of the Saarbrucken vs Großaspach professional German 3. Liga soccer match scheduled for September 19, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. Three possible outcomes are considered: a win for Saarbrucken, a win for Großaspach, or a tie. If the match ends in a tie after regular time, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. Should the game be cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price as determined by the platform’s rules. The resolution strictly follows the final score determined within the standard match duration, with no consideration for post-match proceedings such as extra time or penalty kicks.
Prediction market odds often differ from those found at sportsbooks, reflecting the wisdom of the crowd versus the assessments of professional oddsmakers. Sportsbooks set initial lines to balance action, while this market’s odds are driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. This can lead to discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. It’s common to see prediction markets react more quickly to breaking news than traditional sportsbooks, potentially offering a more up-to-date assessment of probabilities. Examining both can provide a more comprehensive view.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, meaning traders are constantly buying and selling contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s current assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective intelligence of the group. The higher the price of a contract, the more likely the market believes that outcome is to happen. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of probabilities, driven entirely by user activity.
This market resolves around Sep 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Saarbrucken vs Großaspach match. The platform will verify the result against reliable sources to determine which outcome corresponds to the actual event result. Traders holding contracts on the winning outcome will be paid out according to the final market price at resolution, while those holding contracts on losing outcomes will forfeit their investment. This ensures a transparent and objective resolution process.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market before Sep 19, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, team form, or changes in coaching staff could significantly impact trader sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions on match day could also play a role. Furthermore, major upsets in other related matches or broader football news could indirectly affect the perceived probabilities. Shifts in public opinion, as reflected in social media or sports news coverage, can also drive trading activity and alter the market's pricing. Monitoring these signals is crucial for understanding potential price fluctuations.