TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Choosin' Texas
- Kalshi
Choosin' Texas - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 28, 2026
Closed: Jun 27, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks which song will rank as the second-most streamed track on Spotify's Daily Top Songs USA chart for June 27, 2026. The resolution depends on identifying which of the specified songs achieves the #2 position on that specific date.
Kalshi
The event resolves to Yes if any of the following songs achieves the #2 ranking on Spotify's Daily Top Songs USA chart for the chart dated June 27, 2026: Choosin' Texas, stupid song, the cure, hate that i made you love me, Earrings, honeybee, drop dead, Be Her, Janice STFU, Cinderella (feat. Ty Dolla $ign), Billie Jean, expectations, maggots for brains, Chicago, or my way. Resolution is based solely on the official Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart position for the specified date. If none of these songs ranks #2 on that date, or if the chart data is unavailable, the event resolves according to standard market protocols. This market is not endorsed by Spotify and references to Spotify charts are descriptive only.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they aggregate real-time trader behavior and financial incentives rather than relying on expert opinion alone. While music analysts and chart forecasters may publish predictions based on historical trends and industry knowledge, this market prices outcomes through continuous trading, allowing participants to incorporate breaking news, viral moments, and shifting listener preferences instantly. The two approaches can complement each other—analysts provide context, while market odds reveal where informed traders are actually placing capital.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell outcome contracts at prices between 0 and 100 cents, with each cent representing a 1% implied probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Your position's value fluctuates as other traders adjust their bids and offers, and you can exit at any time by selling your contracts back into the market. The spread between buy and sell prices reflects the market's liquidity and uncertainty around which song will finish as runner-up.
This market resolves around Jun 28, 2026, once Spotify's official USA streaming data for that date becomes publicly available. The outcome is determined by identifying which song ranks second in total streams on Spotify's United States charts for the specified day. Resolution is verified against credible public reporting of Spotify's published rankings, ensuring accuracy and transparency for all traders.
Major catalysts include new song releases from top artists, viral social media moments that drive streaming surges, and playlist placements on Spotify's high-traffic editorial channels. Chart performance from competing tracks, radio airplay, and celebrity endorsements can shift listener behavior significantly. Additionally, streaming data leaks or early reports about chart momentum may prompt traders to adjust positions. Real-time streaming metrics and industry news coverage of chart races often trigger rapid repricing as the resolution date approaches.
