TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
stupid song
- Kalshi
stupid song - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 24, 2026
Closed: Jun 23, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This market tracks which song will rank as the second-most streamed track on Spotify's Daily Top Songs USA chart for June 23, 2026. The resolution depends on identifying whichever of the specified songs achieves the #2 position on that specific date.
Kalshi
The market resolves to Yes if any one of the following songs achieves the #2 ranking on Spotify's Daily Top Songs USA chart for the chart dated June 23, 2026: stupid song, Choosin' Texas, Earrings, the cure, honeybee, drop dead, hate that i made you love me, Billie Jean, Be Her, Cinderella (feat. Ty Dolla $ign), Janice STFU, maggots for brains, expectations, my way, or what's wrong with me. Resolution is based solely on the official Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart for that specific date. The market does not constitute an endorsement by Spotify and references to Spotify charts and streaming data are descriptive only.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional music industry analyst forecasts because they incorporate real-time trader conviction and financial incentives. While analysts may rely on chart momentum, radio play, and promotional activity, this market aggregates the views of participants betting actual capital on the outcome. Prediction markets tend to update faster than periodic analyst reports, making them responsive to breaking news, streaming surges, or artist announcements. Comparing the two reveals whether the crowd's assessment aligns with expert opinion or signals emerging consensus shifts.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing each potential runner-up song outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each share reflects the market's implied probability; higher prices indicate stronger collective belief in that song's likelihood of finishing second. Traders profit by correctly predicting the outcome or by identifying mispriced shares relative to their own forecasts. Liquidity and trading volume determine how easily participants can enter or exit positions.
This market resolves around Jun 24, 2026, once Spotify's official USA chart for June 23, 2026 is published and verified. The outcome is determined by identifying which song ranks in the second position on that day's chart. Resolution is confirmed once the ranking is verifiable from credible public sources and Spotify's official reporting. Traders holding shares in the correct runner-up song receive their payout upon settlement.
Major catalysts include new song releases from top artists, viral social media moments, and playlist placements on Spotify's high-traffic editorial collections. Award show performances, radio breakthroughs, and celebrity endorsements can rapidly shift streaming volume and chart positioning. Chart momentum in the weeks leading up to June 23 will be closely watched, as will any unexpected drops or surges in listener engagement. Music industry news, chart leaks, and real-time streaming data serve as key signals that traders monitor to adjust their positions.
