TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
the cure
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the cure - Kalshi
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 17, 2026
Closed: Jun 15, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks which song will rank as the second-most streamed track on Spotify's Daily Top Songs USA chart for June 15, 2026. The resolution depends on identifying whichever of the specified songs achieves the #2 position on that specific date.
Kalshi
The market resolves to Yes if any of the following songs achieves the #2 position on Spotify's Daily Top Songs USA chart for the chart dated June 15, 2026: stupid song, the cure, drop dead, honeybee, Choosin' Texas, maggots for brains, my way, what's wrong with me, begged, u + me = <3, expectations, less, hate that i made you love me, purple, or cigarette smoke. Resolution is based solely on the official Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart for the specified date. Only one of these songs can occupy the #2 position on any given day, so the market will resolve to Yes if any single song from this list reaches that ranking, and No if none of them do.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds reflect real-money trader conviction and aggregate dispersed information about upcoming Spotify charts, often diverging meaningfully from traditional analyst predictions or music industry forecasts. While analysts may rely on pre-release hype, radio play, and historical artist performance, this market prices in live streaming data, social media momentum, and trader bets on surprise breakout hits. Comparing the implied probability of the leading outcome to music publication predictions or chart forecasters can reveal whether the market is pricing in optimism or skepticism relative to expert consensus.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous limit-order book where traders buy and sell shares representing each possible runner-up song outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each share pays $1 if that song finishes second in US Spotify streams on the settlement date, and $0 otherwise. The current bid-ask spread and order depth reflect market confidence in each candidate; tighter spreads indicate higher certainty, while wider spreads suggest genuine uncertainty among traders about which track will claim the runner-up position.
This market resolves around Jun 16, 2026, once Spotify's official USA streaming rankings for June 15, 2026 are published and verified against credible public sources. The outcome is determined by identifying which song holds the second-highest total streams in the United States on that date. Resolution occurs automatically once the data is confirmed, and traders' positions settle based on whether their chosen outcome matches Spotify's official chart.
Major catalog releases from top artists, viral social media moments, and playlist placements on Spotify's most-followed editorial collections can significantly shift odds in this market. Chart performance from competing songs, unexpected streaming surges driven by TikTok or other platforms, and real-time Spotify data leaks all influence trader positioning. Additionally, any surprise chart debuts or sustained momentum from emerging artists could reshape probabilities as the June 15 settlement date approaches, creating trading opportunities for those monitoring music industry developments closely.
