TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
drop dead
- Kalshi
drop dead - Kalshi
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 14, 2026
Closed: Jun 13, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks which song will hold the second position on Spotify's Daily Top Songs USA chart on June 13, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific song, and resolves to Yes if that song achieves the runner-up ranking on that date.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by Spotify's Daily Top Songs USA chart dated June 13, 2026. A market resolves to Yes if its corresponding song achieves the #2 position on that chart. The eligible songs are: Choosin' Texas, hate that i made you love me, I Knew It I Knew You, Janice STFU, Earrings, the cure, Billie Jean, Chicago, Cinderella (feat. Ty Dolla $ign), Be Her, Babydoll, Mr. Brightside, Man I Need, drop dead, and Shabang. Only one song can occupy the #2 position on any given date, so only one market can resolve to Yes. If none of these songs holds the #2 position on the specified date, all markets resolve to No. This market is descriptive only and has not been endorsed by Spotify.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional music industry analyst forecasts because they aggregate real-time trader beliefs rather than relying on static models or expert opinion. While analysts may project chart performance based on release timing, promotion, and historical trends, this market prices in live streaming momentum and listener behavior. Comparing the two reveals whether the crowd expects surprises—such as an underdog surge or a favored track's decline. Both signals offer complementary views on which song might claim the runner-up position.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to each possible outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each share pays out a fixed amount if that outcome occurs, and the current market price reflects the collective probability assigned by active traders. As new streaming data, chart predictions, or industry news surfaces, traders adjust their positions, moving prices in real time. The spread between bid and ask prices tightens or widens based on liquidity and conviction.
This market resolves around Jun 14, 2026, once Spotify's official USA daily rankings for June 13, 2026 are published and verified against credible public sources. The outcome is determined by identifying which song holds the number-two position on that date. Resolution is straightforward and objective, leaving no ambiguity about which track qualifies as the runner-up. Traders should monitor Spotify's official announcements and major music news outlets in the days leading up to and following the event date.
Major album or single releases, chart debuts, and viral social-media moments can shift streaming patterns and reshape expectations for the runner-up position. Radio play, playlist placements, and celebrity endorsements often drive short-term momentum. Industry awards, chart performance in other regions, and surprise collaborations may also influence U.S. streaming rankings. Additionally, seasonal trends, competing releases, and listener fatigue with existing hits can cause rapid repricing. Traders should track music news, streaming data leaks, and cultural events that could alter the competitive landscape heading into June 2026.
