TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Choosin' Texas
- Kalshi
Choosin' Texas - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 10, 2026
Closed: Sep 9, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks which music video achieves the second-highest view count on YouTube's US daily chart for a specific date. It reflects viewer engagement and popularity trends for music videos on a given day, offering insight into cultural and digital consumption patterns.
Kalshi
The event determines whether any of the specified music videos rank #2 on YouTube Charts’ Daily Top Music Videos United States chart for September 9, 2026. Each market corresponds to a unique music video, and resolution depends solely on that video's position on the chart for the specified date. All markets operate independently, with no cumulative or comparative effects between them. The outcome for each market is binary—either the video achieves the required ranking (resolving to Yes) or it does not (resolving to No). Secondary rules clarify that YouTube has not endorsed these markets and that any references to YouTube are purely descriptive.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on subjective assessments and historical trends, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of informed opinions. Discrepancies can arise from differing methodologies or the incorporation of unique, real-time information by traders. It’s common to see this market adjust rapidly to new developments, potentially outpacing more static analyst predictions. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into market sentiment and potential blind spots in conventional analysis.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. As more traders participate, the prices converge towards a consensus view. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth—the number of contracts available at various price points—indicates the ease of entering and exiting positions. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for efficient discovery of probabilities based on collective intelligence.
This market resolves around Sep 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the outcome will be determined by identifying the music video that receives the highest number of views on YouTube within a 24-hour period following its release as a 'daily' music video. The resolution will be based on publicly available data from YouTube’s official view counts, ensuring transparency and objectivity. This process ensures a clear and verifiable determination of the market’s outcome.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Unexpected viral trends on social media platforms could rapidly shift attention towards a particular artist or song, influencing view counts. Major endorsements from influential figures or inclusion in popular media could also drive viewership. Additionally, any controversies or publicity surrounding an artist or their music could create significant market movement. Finally, the release schedule of competing music videos and the overall promotional efforts by record labels will play a crucial role in shaping the outcome of this market.
