TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,590,312
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,439,516,703
404,175
Markets across
30,277
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,685
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Sunflower
- Kalshi
Sunflower - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 24, 2026
Latest in Entertainment
Closed: Sep 23, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
BloodHound Q50 - My Girl (Official Music Video)
your verity - CG5 × Horror Skunx (original song)
Description
This event tracks which music video achieves the second-highest position on YouTube's U.S. daily chart for a specific date. It reflects viewer engagement and popularity trends for music videos on a given day, offering insight into cultural and artistic preferences.
Kalshi
The event determines the runner-up music video on YouTube's Daily Top Music Videos United States chart for September 23, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific music video, and the market resolves to 'Yes' if the associated video ranks exactly #2 on the chart for that date. All markets share the same resolution condition, differing only in the named video they reference. The outcome is binary for each market—either the specified video is in the second position or it is not. Secondary rules clarify that YouTube has not endorsed these markets, and any references to YouTube are purely descriptive, not indicative of affiliation or endorsement. The resolution hinges solely on YouTube's officially published chart data for the specified day.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional analyst forecasts, as predicting viral video performance is inherently challenging. However, the collective wisdom of traders on Kalshi often reflects a different perspective than individual expert opinions. If analysts were to predict a certain video has a high probability of being the runner-up, we might expect to see increased volume and a corresponding shift in the odds for that outcome in this market. Discrepancies can arise due to factors analysts may not fully account for, such as unexpected social media trends or audience reactions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time assessment of expectations. The current top outcome isn't clearly defined, but the market's movement is driven by trader activity and their assessment of which music video is most likely to achieve runner-up status.
This market resolves around Oct 7, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on which music video is officially identified as the runner-up for the daily music video featured on YouTube on September 23, 2026. The determination will rely on publicly available data regarding video views, engagement metrics, and official YouTube announcements. The market will settle to 100 for the winning outcome and 0 for all others, reflecting the definitive result of the event.
Several signals could significantly move this market. Unexpected viral trends on platforms like TikTok or X (formerly Twitter) could quickly boost a video's popularity. Official announcements from the music artists or record labels involved could also influence trader sentiment. Major media coverage or endorsements from influential figures could similarly impact the odds. Furthermore, any controversies or negative publicity surrounding a particular video could decrease its chances of being the runner-up. Shifts in YouTube’s algorithm or changes to the daily video selection process could also be catalysts for movement in this market.
