TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,590,312
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,439,516,703
404,175
Markets across
30,277
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,685
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Dai Dai
- Kalshi
Dai Dai - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 22, 2026
Latest in Entertainment
Closed: Sep 21, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks which music video achieves the second-highest view count on YouTube's US daily chart for a specific date. It reflects viewer engagement and popularity trends in the music video landscape, capturing how certain tracks resonate more strongly with audiences on a given day.
Kalshi
The event determines whether any of the listed music videos rank #2 on YouTube Charts’ Daily Top Music Videos United States chart for September 21, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific video—if the designated video achieves the second position on the chart for that date, the associated market resolves positively. All markets are independent, meaning the outcome for one does not affect the others. The rules clarify that YouTube has not endorsed these markets, and references to YouTube are purely descriptive, with no implied affiliation or endorsement by YouTube or Kalshi.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional analyst forecasts, as predicting music chart performance is highly subjective and often relies on qualitative factors. However, the collective wisdom of traders on Kalshi provides a data-driven estimate of the likelihood of different songs achieving the specified ranking. If analysts were to provide probabilities for each song, it would be interesting to see how those compare to the market prices, which reflect real money being put behind each potential outcome. This market offers a unique perspective beyond simple polling data.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing their belief in the outcome. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy a contract, its price increases, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust the odds accordingly. The current market prices reflect the aggregated beliefs of all participants on Kalshi.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the ranking of songs on YouTube Charts’ Daily Top Music Videos chart dated Sep 21, 2026, will be used to determine which outcome corresponds to the #2 song. The resolution will be based on the official chart data published by YouTube Charts, providing a transparent and objective basis for determining the winning contract. Traders should monitor this data source as the resolution date approaches.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding the release dates, promotional activities, or critical reception of potential contenders could shift the odds. Unexpected viral trends on social media, major endorsements, or even controversies surrounding artists could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, changes in YouTube’s algorithm or chart methodology could have an effect. Monitoring music news, social media trends, and YouTube Charts’ updates will be crucial for understanding potential market movements leading up to the resolution date.
