TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,590,312
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,439,516,703
404,175
Markets across
30,277
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,685
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 19, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks which music video achieves the second-highest position on the United States YouTube Charts for a specific day in 2026. It reflects viewer engagement and popularity through chart rankings, offering insight into trending content without involving complex market mechanics.
The event determines the outcome based on the ranking of various music videos on YouTube's Daily Top Music Videos United States chart for September 19, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific music video, and the market resolves to 'Yes' if that particular video ranks exactly #2 on the chart for that date. All markets share the same resolution date and chart source, ensuring consistency across outcomes. The secondary rules clarify that YouTube has not endorsed these markets, and any references to YouTube are purely descriptive, emphasizing that the markets operate independently of official YouTube affiliations or endorsements. The structure allows multiple distinct music videos to potentially resolve as 'Yes,' depending on their individual chart positions.
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinions. Often, this market demonstrates a unique perspective, potentially identifying factors that traditional analysis overlooks. While analysts may focus on established metrics, the wisdom of the crowd in this market incorporates a broader range of information and subjective assessments. It’s important to remember that analysts can be subject to biases, whereas the decentralized nature of this market can offer a more unbiased view of potential outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market is constantly incorporating new data and insights, offering a real-time assessment of the event's likelihood.
This market resolves around Oct 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the official YouTube statistics for the Runner-Up Daily Music Video in the USA on September 19, 2026. The outcome will be determined by which video receives the second-highest number of views within a 24-hour period, as reported by YouTube's official analytics. Traders will be able to view the resolution details on Kalshi once the data is verified.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Major announcements from YouTube regarding changes to its algorithm or promotion policies could impact video visibility and viewership. Unexpected viral trends or challenges on social media platforms could also drive increased attention to specific videos. Furthermore, the release of highly anticipated music videos from popular artists could shift viewer focus and alter the competitive landscape. Any significant news or events related to the featured artists or the music industry in general could also influence trading activity in this market.