TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 9, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Draw You Out (From The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping - The Album)
Description
This event tracks which music video achieves the second-highest view count on YouTube's U.S. daily chart for a specific date. It reflects viewer engagement and popularity trends in the music video landscape, offering insight into audience preferences and viral content performance.
Kalshi
The event determines the outcome based on YouTube Charts’ Daily Top Music Videos United States chart for October 9, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific music video, and the market resolves to 'Yes' if that particular video ranks exactly #2 on the chart for that date. All markets share the same resolution date and chart source, with identical secondary disclaimers clarifying that YouTube has not endorsed these markets and that references to YouTube are purely descriptive. The resolution hinges solely on the final chart ranking, with no additional conditions or tiebreakers specified beyond the exact #2 position requirement.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective prediction differs from expert opinion. Often, this market demonstrates the 'wisdom of the crowd,' potentially identifying insights that individual analysts might miss. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas of uncertainty or disagreement, offering a more nuanced understanding of the potential outcome. It’s important to remember that analysts may have biases or limited information, while this market reflects a broader range of perspectives and continuously updates as new information becomes available.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time assessment of expectations. The current top outcome isn’t clearly defined, as volume is still low, but the market will establish a clear leader as trading activity increases.
This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the outcome will be determined by identifying the runner-up music video based on views on YouTube in the USA on October 9, 2026. The resolution will rely on publicly available data to ensure an objective and transparent result. Traders should monitor official sources for updates as the resolution date approaches, as any ambiguity will be resolved using the most reliable information available.
Several signals could significantly move this market. Unexpected announcements regarding popular artists or music releases could shift expectations. Changes in YouTube’s algorithm or viewing trends could also impact which videos gain traction. Furthermore, any controversies or viral moments surrounding specific music videos could influence their viewership and, consequently, the market odds. Monitoring music industry news, social media trends, and YouTube analytics will be crucial for understanding potential catalysts that could affect this market before Oct 23, 2026.
