TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 8, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Draw You Out (From The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping - The Album)
Description
This event tracks which music video achieves the second-highest view count on YouTube's U.S. daily chart for a specific date. It reflects audience engagement and popularity trends in music video content over a single day, offering insight into cultural moments and viewer preferences as captured by YouTube's real-time data.
Kalshi
The event determines the runner-up music video on YouTube's Daily Top Music Videos United States chart for October 8, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific music video, and the market resolves to 'Yes' if that video ranks exactly #2 on the chart for that date. All markets share identical secondary rules clarifying that YouTube has not endorsed these markets and that any references to YouTube are purely descriptive, with no implied affiliation or endorsement. The outcome hinges solely on YouTube's publicly available chart data for the specified day, with no additional performance or context considerations beyond the ranking position.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare prediction market odds to traditional analyst forecasts for this specific event. However, generally, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than typical analyst reports. This market reflects the collective wisdom of traders, potentially identifying factors that analysts may overlook. If analysts were to provide forecasts for the ranking of music videos, a comparison could reveal whether the market is more or less optimistic than expert opinion, though such forecasts are not readily available for this niche event.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes, and the price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy a contract, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability. Conversely, selling pressure lowers the price. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price is constantly adjusting based on supply and demand, creating a dynamic representation of expectations for the daily music video ranking.
Several signals could influence this market. A significant surge in views or engagement for a particular music video in the days leading up to October 8, 2026, would likely increase its odds. Unexpected promotional campaigns or viral trends could also shift the market. News regarding artist collaborations or album releases might also impact perceptions of a video's potential ranking. Any event that alters public interest in a specific video could lead to changes in trading activity and, consequently, the market’s price.
