TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Dexter and The Moonrocks - Why Don’t You Say So (feat. Avery Anna) (Official Music Video)
Ricardo Arjona y Grupo Firme - Amor Factura (Video Oficial) @ArjonaOficial @GrupoFirmeOficial
James 1:17 (Jesus Is King) - Kid Rock [Official Music Video}
Music Teacher Asks if I Know Fleetwood Mac and Her Voice Shocks The Airport
Draw You Out (From The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping - The Album)
Description
This event tracks which music video achieves the second-highest view count on YouTube's US daily chart for a specific date. Each market represents a different music video, and the outcome depends on YouTube's ranking data for that day.
Kalshi
The event determines the runner-up music video on YouTube's Daily Top Music Videos United States chart for October 5, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific music video, and the market resolves to 'Yes' if that video occupies the #2 position on the chart for the specified date. All markets share the same resolution criterion—ranking #2 on the designated chart—but apply it to different video titles. Secondary rules clarify that YouTube has not endorsed these markets, and any references to YouTube are purely descriptive, indicating no formal affiliation or endorsement by YouTube. The resolution hinges solely on YouTube's publicly available chart data for the given day and video.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional analyst forecasts, as there isn't widespread public analysis specifically focused on predicting the daily runner-up music video on YouTube. However, examining general music popularity charts, social media trends, and views on related videos can offer a benchmark. If analysts were to provide predictions, it would be interesting to see how their assessments align with the collective wisdom reflected in the prices on Kalshi. Discrepancies could indicate areas where the market perceives information differently.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s probability assessment of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently aggregate diverse perspectives and generate a forecast based on collective intelligence. The current top outcome isn't available.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on which music video is identified as the runner-up for the daily music video on YouTube, as determined by official YouTube statistics. The platform will verify this information against publicly available data to determine the winning outcome and settle all outstanding contracts. Traders should monitor official YouTube channels for the official results.
Several signals could significantly move this market. Unexpected surges in views or social media engagement for a particular music video would likely shift the odds. Announcements regarding artist collaborations or promotional campaigns could also influence trader sentiment. Furthermore, any news related to YouTube’s algorithm or featured content could impact which videos gain prominence. Monitoring music charts, trending topics on social media, and official YouTube announcements will be crucial for understanding potential catalysts that could affect the prices in this market.
