TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
K/DA - FIRESTARTER ft. MIYEON and SOYEON of i-dle, Sophie Powers, Mimi Webb (Official Music Video)
Description
This event tracks which music video achieves the second-highest view count on YouTube's U.S. daily chart for a specific date. Participants speculate on whether particular songs or artists will secure this runner-up position based on audience engagement metrics.
Kalshi
The event determines the runner-up position on YouTube's Daily Top Music Videos United States chart for October 31, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific music video; resolution occurs if that video ranks exactly #2 on the specified chart for the stated date. All markets operate independently, meaning the outcome for each depends solely on the performance of its designated video. YouTube has not endorsed these markets, and any references to YouTube are purely descriptive, indicating no formal affiliation or endorsement by YouTube. The focus is strictly on chart ranking accuracy for the defined date and videos.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare prediction market odds to traditional analyst forecasts for this specific event, as comprehensive, publicly available forecasts for the daily music video market are limited. However, prediction markets often aggregate diverse opinions and can reflect a 'wisdom of the crowd' effect, potentially offering a different perspective than individual analyst predictions. If analysts were to provide forecasts, it would be interesting to see how closely their predictions align with the probabilities implied by this market, and whether the market consistently outperforms or underperforms those expectations.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the probability of each music video being the runner-up. The price of a contract reflects the implied probability of that outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust, providing a dynamic assessment of the potential winner. The market depth, represented by the bid and ask prices, indicates the level of agreement or disagreement among traders regarding each video's chances.
This market resolves around Nov 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on identifying the music video that receives the second-highest number of views on YouTube for the designated 'Daily Music Video' series on October 31, 2026. The final view counts will be verified against publicly available data from YouTube to determine the runner-up and settle this market. The resolution process ensures a transparent and objective determination of the winning outcome.
Several signals could significantly move this market. Unexpected promotional activity for a particular music video, viral social media trends, or endorsements from influential figures could all shift trader sentiment. Major news events related to the artists involved or the music industry in general could also have an impact. Furthermore, the release of new music videos by competing artists in the lead-up to October 31, 2026, could alter the perceived probabilities. Any data suggesting a surge in views for a specific video would likely cause its odds to improve in this market.
