TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 28, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Ramayana: Mangal Rang (Song) | Namit M, Nitesh T | AR Rahman, Arijit Singh, Shreya Ghoshal, Kumar V
Description
This event tracks which music video achieves the second-highest view count on YouTube's US daily chart for a specific date. Participants speculate on whether particular music videos will secure this runner-up position based on audience engagement metrics.
Kalshi
The event determines the runner-up position on YouTube's Daily Top Music Videos United States chart for October 28, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific music video, and resolution hinges on that video ranking exactly #2 on the specified chart for that date. If the designated video achieves this ranking, the respective market resolves positively; otherwise, it resolves negatively. All markets operate independently, meaning the outcome for each depends solely on the performance of its individual video, not on the chart positions of other entries. References to YouTube are strictly descriptive and imply no endorsement or affiliation between YouTube and the event operator.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional analyst forecasts, as there aren’t widely available, comparable predictions for this specific event. However, prediction markets often aggregate diverse opinions and can reflect real-time information more quickly than static analyst reports. If analysts were to provide predictions, it would be interesting to see how their views align with the collective wisdom of traders in this market. The market’s current pricing reflects what participants believe is most likely to happen.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices will adjust accordingly, providing a dynamic assessment of the event’s likelihood. The market’s depth and volume indicate the level of confidence traders have in their predictions.
This market resolves around Nov 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the official ranking of music videos on YouTube’s Daily Top Music Videos chart dated October 28, 2026. The outcome will be determined by which artist achieves the number two position on that chart, as reported by YouTube. The determination will be made using publicly available data, ensuring a transparent and verifiable process.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. A major announcement from a popular artist, such as a new music video release or a high-profile performance, could shift the odds. Changes in YouTube’s algorithm or promotion strategies could also influence video rankings. Unexpected viral trends or controversies surrounding artists could also move the market. Any news related to the artists most likely to be in contention for the number two spot will be closely watched by traders, potentially leading to fluctuations in the market price.
