TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 27, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Megan Thee Stallion - Thin Ice - Tina Tuesday Freestyle
Description
This event tracks which music video achieves the second-highest view count on YouTube's U.S. daily chart for a specific date. Participants can speculate on whether particular songs or artists will secure this position based on anticipated popularity and viewer engagement.
Kalshi
The event determines the runner-up music video on YouTube's U.S. Daily Top Music Videos chart for October 27, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific music video or artist. If the designated video ranks exactly #2 on the chart for that date, the respective market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. All markets operate independently, meaning the outcome for one does not affect the others. The charts are compiled by YouTube based on views, and all references to YouTube are strictly descriptive, with no implied endorsement or affiliation between YouTube and the event organizer.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare prediction market odds to traditional analyst forecasts for this specific event. However, generally, prediction markets often aggregate a diverse range of information and opinions, potentially offering a more accurate forecast than individual analyst predictions. This is because traders have a financial incentive to be correct, leading to a ‘wisdom of the crowd’ effect. It's worth noting that analyst opinions can vary widely, and this market reflects the collective judgment of those actively trading on Kalshi.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Market depth and trading volume influence price movements, with higher volume generally indicating greater confidence in the current price. Traders aim to profit by correctly predicting the outcome and capitalizing on discrepancies between their own beliefs and the market price. The current top outcome is unavailable, and chance percentage is unavailable.
This market resolves around Nov 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the runner-up daily music video on YouTube as determined by official YouTube statistics. The exact criteria for determining the runner-up will be based on publicly available data from YouTube, such as view counts and engagement metrics. Traders will be able to see the final outcome and settlement details on Kalshi following the resolution date.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 10, 2026. Unexpected viral trends on YouTube, major announcements from artists or record labels, or shifts in public sentiment regarding music videos could all influence trading activity. A surge in views for a particular video, or controversy surrounding a release, could also cause the odds to change. Furthermore, any news impacting YouTube’s algorithm or promotional strategies could affect which videos gain traction, and therefore, impact this market. Monitoring these factors will be key to understanding potential market movements.
