TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks which music video achieves the second-highest view count on YouTube's U.S. daily chart for a specific date. Each market focuses on a different song or artist, with resolution based solely on YouTube's official ranking data for that day.
Kalshi
The event resolves based on the YouTube Charts’ Daily Top Music Videos United States chart dated October 26, 2026. For each market, if the specified music video ranks exactly #2 on that chart for the designated date, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. All markets operate independently, with each having its own unique music video as the subject of evaluation. Neither YouTube nor any associated entities have endorsed these markets, and references to YouTube are used descriptively without implying affiliation or endorsement. The outcome depends solely on YouTube's publicly available chart data for the specified day and does not consider any other performance metrics or interpretations.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional analyst forecasts, as predicting music video chart performance is highly speculative. However, prediction markets often aggregate diverse perspectives and can reflect a 'wisdom of the crowd' effect, potentially offering a different outlook than individual expert opinions. If analysts were to offer predictions, it would be interesting to see if their forecasts align with the probabilities reflected in this market, or if discrepancies emerge based on differing methodologies and information sources.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction mechanism, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the most up-to-date expectations regarding which music video will achieve the runner-up position on the specified YouTube chart.
This market resolves around Nov 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will resolve based on the official ranking of music videos on YouTube Charts’ Daily Top Music Videos chart dated October 26, 2026. The video that ranks as number two will determine the winning outcome of this market. The resolution will be based on publicly available data from YouTube Charts, ensuring a transparent and verifiable result.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Unexpected announcements regarding music video releases, artist collaborations, or promotional campaigns could shift expectations. Viral trends on social media platforms like TikTok or X (formerly Twitter) could significantly boost a video's popularity. Changes in YouTube’s algorithm or chart methodology could also impact rankings. Finally, any news concerning the artists involved, such as controversies or positive publicity, could move this market as traders react to new information and adjust their predictions.
