TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
On October 25, 2026, various music videos will compete for the second position on YouTube's Daily Top Music Videos chart in the United States. Each video's ranking will determine the outcome for its specific market, reflecting viewer engagement and popularity that day.
Kalshi
Each market will resolve to Yes if the specified music video ranks #2 on YouTube Charts’ Daily Top Music Videos United States chart dated Oct 25, 2026. All markets are independent, with no interdependence between them. Secondary rules clarify that YouTube has not endorsed these markets, and references to YouTube are purely descriptive.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional analyst forecasts, as predicting viral music video success is inherently challenging. However, the collective wisdom of traders on Kalshi often provides a different perspective than individual expert opinions. If analysts were to predict a specific video has a high probability of success, we might expect to see increased volume and a rising price for that outcome in this market. Discrepancies between market prices and analyst expectations could indicate areas of potential value or disagreement.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing their belief in the likelihood of each outcome. The price of a contract reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices will adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. The market’s depth and volume indicate how actively traders are engaging with the question of which music video will achieve the runner-up position.
This market resolves around Nov 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the ranking of music videos on YouTube’s Daily Top Music Videos chart dated Oct 25, 2026, will be used to determine which video achieves the #2 position. The market will settle based on this publicly available data, ensuring a transparent and objective resolution process. Traders should monitor the chart as the resolution date approaches to assess the potential outcomes.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. A major marketing campaign launched by a record label, a viral trend featuring a specific song, or unexpected collaborations between artists could all shift public attention and influence the chart rankings. Positive or negative critical reception of new music videos, and even social media buzz surrounding them, could also move the market. Any news related to the featured artists or the videos themselves has the potential to alter trading activity and adjust the probabilities reflected in this market.
