TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 24, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Boston’s “Smokin’” Was Even More Impressive Live | Giants Stadium 1979
Description
This event tracks which music video achieves the second-highest view count on YouTube's Daily Top Music Videos chart in the United States for a specific date. Each market focuses on a different video, with the outcome determined by its real-time performance against competitors on that day's chart.
Kalshi
The event determines the runner-up position on YouTube's Daily Top Music Videos United States chart for October 24, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific music video and resolves to 'Yes' if that video ranks exactly #2 on the chart for that date. The resolution relies solely on YouTube's official chart data published on the specified day. All markets are independent, with each video's performance evaluated against the same chart ranking criteria. References to YouTube in the rules are purely descriptive and indicate no endorsement or affiliation between YouTube and the event operator.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. Often, this market demonstrates a different perspective than traditional polls or expert predictions, potentially incorporating a wider range of information and reacting more quickly to new developments. Discrepancies can arise from differing methodologies, biases, or access to unique data points. It's important to note that analyst forecasts represent individual viewpoints, while this market reflects the aggregated beliefs of many participants.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly, creating a dynamic and efficient price discovery mechanism. This allows traders to express their beliefs and profit from accurately predicting the event's outcome.
This market resolves around Nov 7, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the outcome will be determined by identifying the runner-up music video based on the official YouTube view count as reported by YouTube analytics. The resolution will rely on publicly available data to ensure transparency and accuracy, and will reflect the final standings as of the specified resolution date and time. The final result will be publicly available after the resolution process is complete.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Unexpected viral trends or significant media coverage of particular music videos could shift public attention and impact view counts. Major artist endorsements or controversies surrounding certain videos could also play a role. Furthermore, any changes to YouTube's algorithm or reporting methods could influence the data used to determine the outcome. Monitoring these factors and staying informed about the music video landscape will be crucial for understanding potential market movements.
