TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Ramayana: Ravana Tandav (Song) | Namit M, Nitesh T | Ranbir, Yash | AR Rahman, Vishal D, Kumar V
- Kalshi
Ramayana: Ravana Tandav (Song) | Namit M, Nitesh T | Ranbir, Yash | AR Rahman, Vishal D, Kumar V - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Oct 26, 2026
Closed: Oct 23, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Ramayana: Ravana Tandav (Song) | Namit M, Nitesh T | Ranbir, Yash | AR Rahman, Vishal D, Kumar V
Description
This event tracks which music video achieves the second-highest position on YouTube's Daily Top Music Videos chart in the United States for a specific date. Each market focuses on a different video, and the outcome depends on the chart ranking of that particular video.
Kalshi
The event determines the runner-up music video on YouTube's Daily Top Music Videos United States chart for October 23, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific music video, and the market resolves to 'Yes' if that video ranks exactly #2 on the chart for that date. The resolution is binary for each market—either the specified video is in the runner-up position or it is not. All markets operate under the same chart date and ranking criteria, with no endorsements from YouTube implied by participation or references in the market titles or rules. The secondary rules clarify that any mention of YouTube is purely descriptive and does not suggest affiliation or endorsement by YouTube or its associated entities.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to draw direct comparisons between prediction market odds and traditional analyst forecasts for this specific event. Unlike polls or expert opinions, this market reflects the collective judgment of individuals with 'skin in the game,' meaning they financially benefit from accurate predictions. This can lead to different outcomes than those predicted by analysts who may rely on different data or methodologies. It’s important to remember that prediction markets aggregate diverse perspectives, potentially identifying signals missed by conventional forecasting approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more people buy contracts for a particular music video, its price increases, and its implied probability rises. Conversely, selling contracts lowers the price and probability. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations as the event approaches.
This market resolves around Nov 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will determine which music video is the runner-up in the daily music video chart on YouTube for October 23, 2026. The resolution will be based on official YouTube data and verified against credible public sources. The final price of the winning contract will reflect the accuracy of the market’s collective prediction.
Several signals could significantly move this market. Any news regarding the release dates or promotional campaigns of upcoming music videos could influence trading activity. Unexpected viral trends or controversies surrounding artists or songs could also shift probabilities. Furthermore, changes in YouTube’s algorithm or chart rankings could impact perceptions of which video is likely to be the runner-up. Finally, major music awards announcements or critical reviews could sway market sentiment as traders react to new information and adjust their predictions.
