TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 21, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Choosin' Texas [YouTube video 11: hLOheGDwD_0]
expectations (feat. Chappell Roan) (Official Music Video)
Choosin' Texas [YouTube video 4: nUsrYVxrDwI]
Description
This event tracks which music video will secure the second position on YouTube's Daily Top Music Videos chart in the United States for a specific date in 2026. Each market focuses on a different video, and the outcome depends entirely on YouTube's official rankings for that day.
Kalshi
The event determines the runner-up music video on YouTube's Daily Top Music Videos United States chart for October 21, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific music video, and resolution hinges on that video achieving the #2 position on the designated chart. If the named video occupies the second spot, the associated market resolves positively; otherwise, it resolves negatively. All markets operate independently, with no cumulative or interdependent effects. YouTube has not endorsed these markets, and references to YouTube are purely descriptive, indicating no formal affiliation or endorsement by the platform.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds represent the collective wisdom of traders on Kalshi. These odds often differ from initial analyst forecasts, as the market incorporates new information and reacts to evolving sentiment. While analysts may offer pre-event predictions based on various factors, this market reflects a continuously updated assessment of probabilities as the event approaches. It’s common to see discrepancies between expert opinions and the market’s implied probabilities, offering a unique perspective on potential outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy a contract, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability. Conversely, increased selling pressure lowers the price. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently aggregate information and generate a probabilistic forecast.
This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the music video that achieves the runner-up position in daily views on YouTube for the specified date. The final result will be determined by publicly available data from YouTube’s official reporting, ensuring a transparent and objective outcome for this market.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Unexpected surges in views for specific music videos, driven by viral social media trends or celebrity endorsements, would likely shift the odds. Major announcements related to the artists featured in the videos, such as new album releases or tour dates, could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, any changes to YouTube’s algorithm or promotion strategies could affect video visibility and, consequently, the probabilities reflected in this market.
