TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 19, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Meek Mill - Wanna Be Free (feat. G Herbo) [Visualizer]
The Live Footage That Launched Van Halen on MTV | Oakland Coliseum 1981
Olivia Rodrigo - expectations (feat. Chappell Roan) (Official Music Video)
Description
This event tracks which music video achieves the second-highest view count on YouTube's US daily chart for a specific date. Participants can speculate on whether particular songs or videos will secure this runner-up position based on anticipated viewer engagement and trends.
Kalshi
The event determines the runner-up position on YouTube's Daily Top Music Videos United States chart for October 19, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific music video or performance piece, and resolution depends solely on that video's ranking. If the designated video ranks exactly #2 on the chart for that date, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. All markets operate independently, with no cumulative or interdependent effects. References to YouTube are strictly descriptive and imply no endorsement or official partnership between the platform and the event organizer. The outcome is verified using YouTube's publicly available chart data as of the specified date.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, there are no widely available analyst forecasts specifically predicting the runner-up position in the Daily Music Video charts for the date in question. However, if such forecasts were to emerge, comparing them to this market’s odds would reveal whether the ‘wisdom of the crowd’ on Kalshi aligns with expert opinions. Discrepancies could indicate that traders possess unique information or interpret available data differently than analysts. It’s important to remember that prediction markets reflect real-money wagers, potentially offering a more accurate signal than non-monetary predictions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes, and the price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of its probability. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing sentiment. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand, meaning that if many traders believe an outcome is likely, the price of the corresponding contract will increase, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the most up-to-date expectations.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the official YouTube Charts’ Daily Top Music Videos chart dated October 19, 2026, determining which music video secured the runner-up position. The market will settle to 100 if the predicted outcome occurs, and 0 otherwise. The final outcome will be determined by the official rankings published by YouTube Charts and will be publicly available for verification.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Unexpected releases of highly anticipated music videos from major artists could shift the odds. Changes in YouTube’s algorithm that favor certain types of content could also influence viewership and chart positions. Furthermore, any news or events surrounding the artists involved, such as promotional campaigns or controversies, could affect their video’s performance. A surge in social media buzz or viral trends related to a particular song could also drive increased views and potentially move this market considerably before Nov 2, 2026.
