TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 16, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
BigXthaPlug feat. Ava Max - BURN (Official Music Video)
Riley Green, Peyton Manning - Alabama Vs. Tennessee (Official Video)
Description
This event tracks which music video achieves the second-highest position on YouTube's U.S. daily chart for a specific date. Participants speculate on whether particular videos will secure this ranking, reflecting viewer engagement and popularity trends.
Kalshi
The event determines the runner-up position on YouTube's Daily Top Music Videos United States chart for October 16, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific music video, and the market resolves to 'Yes' if that video ranks exactly #2 on the chart for that date. All markets operate independently, meaning the resolution of one does not affect the others. The chart data is sourced from YouTube, though neither YouTube nor Kalshi endorses these markets or associated products. References to YouTube in the rules are purely descriptive and do not imply any affiliation or endorsement. The outcome hinges solely on YouTube's official chart ranking for the specified date, with no adjustments for ties, disputes, or post-event changes.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence stacks up against expert opinion. Often, this market demonstrates a different perspective than traditional polls or expert predictions. While analysts may focus on established artists or trends, the wisdom of the crowd in this market can highlight emerging contenders or unexpected shifts in popularity. This divergence can be particularly interesting in the fast-paced world of music videos, where viral trends can quickly reshape the landscape and influence outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly, providing a dynamic and responsive assessment of the likely winner. This means the odds are not set by a bookmaker, but are rather determined by the collective actions of all traders.
This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will look to YouTube data to determine which music video received the most views as a 'Runner-Up Daily Music Video' on October 16, 2026. The final result will be based on publicly available view counts, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the winning outcome. Traders should monitor official YouTube statistics as the resolution date approaches.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. A major announcement from a popular artist, a viral marketing campaign, or unexpected collaborations could all shift the odds. Positive or negative critical reception of a new music video release would also be a key factor. Furthermore, any significant changes in YouTube's algorithm or promotion strategies could impact visibility and view counts, influencing trader sentiment and causing fluctuations in the market. Tracking these developments will be crucial for informed trading in this market.
