TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 14, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks which music video achieves the second-highest position on YouTube's U.S. daily chart for a specific date. It reflects viewer engagement and popularity trends for various artists and songs on a given day.
Kalshi
The event determines the runner-up music video on YouTube's Daily Top Music Videos United States chart for October 14, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific music video and resolves to 'Yes' if that video ranks exactly #2 on the chart for that date. All markets share the same chart date and ranking position requirement. The markets are independent—only the video named in each market’s primary rule needs to achieve the specified ranking for that market to resolve positively. No endorsement from YouTube is implied, and references to YouTube are purely descriptive.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional analyst forecasts, as predicting music video chart performance is often based on subjective factors and streaming data that isn't always publicly available. However, if analysts were to predict the likelihood of a specific video achieving the runner-up position, their predictions could be compared to the implied probabilities reflected in the prices offered on Kalshi. Discrepancies between market prices and analyst opinions could present potential trading opportunities, reflecting differing beliefs about the likely outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in whether a specific music video will rank as the runner-up. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective assessment of that outcome's probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices will adjust to reflect the changing consensus. The market operates on a 0 to 100 cents scale, where 100 cents represents a 100% probability of the outcome occurring.
This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the official YouTube Charts’ Daily Top Music Videos chart dated October 14, 2026, will be used to determine which video secured the runner-up position. The market will settle to 100 if the predicted video is confirmed as the runner-up, and 0 otherwise. Traders should monitor official chart releases leading up to the resolution date to stay informed about potential catalysts.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Unexpected viral trends, major artist endorsements, or significant promotional campaigns for a particular music video could all shift the odds. Pre-release streaming numbers, early chart data, and social media engagement metrics will also be closely watched. Any news related to the artists involved, such as album releases or public appearances, could also influence trading activity. Shifts in broader music tastes or YouTube algorithm changes could also play a role in how this market moves before Oct 28, 2026.
