TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 13, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Choosin' Texas [YouTube video 2: nUsrYVxrDwI]
Description
This event tracks which music video will secure the second position on YouTube's Daily Top Music Videos chart in the United States for a specific date. Participants speculate on the popularity and viewer engagement of various music videos to determine the runner-up for that day.
Kalshi
The event determines the second-place finisher on YouTube's Daily Top Music Videos United States chart for October 13, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific music video, and the market resolves to 'Yes' if that video ranks #2 on the chart for that date. All markets operate independently, with each video's performance evaluated against the same chart criteria. Neither YouTube nor Kalshi endorses these markets; references to YouTube are purely descriptive and do not imply any affiliation or endorsement. The resolution hinges solely on YouTube's official chart data for the specified day.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. Currently, this market reflects the aggregated predictions of traders on Kalshi, who are assessing the likelihood of a specific music video achieving the #2 ranking. While some analysts may offer individual predictions, this market provides a broader perspective, incorporating insights from a diverse range of participants. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas where the market anticipates outcomes differently than established experts, potentially signaling undervalued or overvalued opportunities.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in the probability of a music video ranking #2. The price of a contract reflects the market’s consensus view of that outcome’s likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust dynamically, offering a real-time assessment of probabilities. This mechanism allows for efficient price discovery, driven by the collective wisdom of the crowd and their interpretation of relevant factors.
This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final ranking of music videos on YouTube’s Daily Top Music Videos chart dated October 13, 2026, will determine whether a contract pays out. The resolution will be based on publicly available data from YouTube, ensuring transparency and objectivity. Traders will be able to see which outcome was verified and receive payouts accordingly, based on their positions in this market.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Unexpected viral trends, major promotional campaigns by artists or record labels, or even controversies surrounding specific music videos could all influence trader sentiment. Shifts in YouTube’s algorithm, changes in user viewing habits, or the release of competing music videos could also impact the perceived probability of a particular video reaching the #2 spot. Monitoring music industry news, social media trends, and YouTube analytics will be crucial for understanding potential catalysts that could drive price fluctuations in this market.
