TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Choosin' Texas [YouTube video 2: nUsrYVxrDwI]
DADDY YANKEE- BOTZ (Bésame OTra veZ) Official Video
Description
This event tracks which music video achieves the second-highest position on YouTube's U.S. daily chart for a specific date, reflecting viewer engagement and popularity trends in the music video landscape.
Kalshi
The event determines the music video that ranks second on YouTube's Daily Top Music Videos United States chart for October 12, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific music video, and the market resolves to 'Yes' if that particular video secures the #2 position on the specified chart for that date. All markets share identical secondary rules, clarifying that neither YouTube nor Kalshi endorses these markets, and any references to YouTube are purely descriptive, indicating no formal affiliation or endorsement. The resolution hinges solely on YouTube's official chart ranking for the given day, with no additional conditions or qualifications affecting the outcome.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional analyst forecasts, as predicting viral music video performance is highly speculative. However, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than typical polls or expert opinions. This market reflects the collective wisdom of forecasters, potentially identifying under- or over-valued outcomes compared to what conventional analysis might suggest. If analysts were to weigh in, it would be interesting to see how their predictions align with the current probabilities expressed through trading on Kalshi.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes at any time. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth – the number of buy and sell orders at various price levels – indicates how easily traders can enter and exit positions. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of expectations regarding the daily music video chart.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will determine which music video ranks as the runner-up on the YouTube Charts’ Daily Top Music Videos chart dated October 12, 2026. The final ranking will be sourced from publicly available chart data, ensuring a transparent and objective resolution process. Traders should monitor chart updates leading up to the resolution date to assess potential shifts in probabilities.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Unexpected viral trends, major artist announcements, or shifts in YouTube's algorithm could all influence music video performance. The release of highly anticipated music videos in the days leading up to October 12, 2026, would also be a key catalyst. Social media buzz and media coverage surrounding specific videos will likely drive trading activity. Any news related to artist collaborations or promotional campaigns could also move the odds, as traders react to new information and adjust their forecasts.
