TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks which music video will secure the second position on YouTube's daily chart in the United States on a specific future date. It reflects viewer engagement and popularity trends for a range of newly released or trending music videos.
Kalshi
The event determines the runner-up music video on YouTube's Daily Top Music Videos United States chart for October 11, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific music video, and the market resolves to 'Yes' if that video ranks exactly #2 on the chart for that date. Only one video can occupy the #2 position, meaning only the market associated with that video will resolve to 'Yes,' while all others resolve to 'No.' The resolution is based solely on YouTube's official chart ranking, and all markets share identical secondary disclaimers regarding lack of endorsement by YouTube. No ties, adjustments, or alternative rankings are considered; the outcome depends entirely on the precise placement of each listed video on the specified chart.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. Often, this market reflects a broader range of information and perspectives than traditional forecasts, potentially identifying overlooked factors. While analysts may focus on specific metrics or trends, the wisdom of the crowd in this market incorporates a wider array of data points and subjective assessments. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas of uncertainty or disagreement regarding the likely outcome of the event.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing sentiment. The market depth and spread indicate the level of confidence and agreement among traders regarding the potential results of the daily music video event. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of probabilities.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the runner-up music video as determined by YouTube views on the specified date. The platform will verify the results against publicly available data to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders will then be paid out based on the final outcome and their positions in this market, reflecting the collective prediction made before the event’s conclusion.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Unexpected viral trends, major announcements from artists or YouTube itself, or shifts in public sentiment regarding music preferences could all influence trading activity. A sudden surge in views for a particular music video, or the release of a highly anticipated new video, could dramatically alter the perceived probabilities. Any news related to YouTube's algorithm or content promotion policies could also impact the market, as these factors directly affect video visibility and viewership.
