TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks which music video secures the second position on YouTube's U.S. daily chart for a specific date, reflecting viewer engagement and popularity trends. The outcome depends entirely on audience interaction and chart performance metrics.
Kalshi
The event determines the runner-up music video on YouTube's U.S. Daily Top Music Videos chart for October 10, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific music video, and resolution hinges on that video achieving the #2 position on the chart for the specified date. All markets operate independently; only the market matching the actual chart outcome will resolve positively. YouTube has not endorsed these markets, and references to YouTube are purely descriptive, indicating no formal affiliation or endorsement by the platform. The structure allows multiple participants to speculate on different potential runners-up, with the correct prediction validating its respective market.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinions. Often, this market demonstrates a different perspective than traditional polls or individual analyst predictions, potentially incorporating a wider range of information and anticipating unforeseen factors. Discrepancies can arise from varying methodologies, biases, or access to unique data. Examining these differences can provide a more comprehensive understanding of potential outcomes and the factors influencing them. It's important to note that prediction markets reflect the wisdom of the crowd, while analyst forecasts represent individual assessments.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective assessment of the event's likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth, displayed on the dashboard, indicates the volume of buy and sell orders at various price points, providing insight into the market's liquidity and potential price movements. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for efficient discovery of probabilities.
This market resolves around Oct 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the official YouTube statistics for the daily music video released on October 10, 2026, as reported by YouTube itself. The outcome will be determined by which video receives the highest number of views within a specified timeframe following the release date. This timeframe and the exact methodology for calculating views will be clearly defined in the market's resolution rules on Kalshi.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major announcements regarding the featured artist or the music video's production could influence trader sentiment. Unexpected viral trends on social media platforms, particularly TikTok or Twitter, could rapidly shift expectations. Positive or negative critical reviews of the video upon release would also likely impact trading activity. Furthermore, any controversies surrounding the artist or the video’s content could introduce volatility. Shifts in overall YouTube viewership trends or changes to the platform’s algorithm could also play a role in the pricing of this market.
