TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Dai Dai
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 19, 2026
Closed: Sep 18, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Xamdam Sobirov - Peshta / Хамдам Собиров - Пешта / Video Klip
Description
This event tracks which music video achieves the second-highest position on YouTube's global daily chart for a specific date. Participants can speculate on whether particular songs or artists will secure this ranking, reflecting viewer engagement and popularity trends.
Kalshi
The event determines the outcome based on YouTube Charts’ Daily Top Music Videos Global ranking for September 18, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific music video; if that video ranks exactly #2 on the chart for that date, the associated market resolves positively. All markets operate independently, with no cumulative or interdependent effects. YouTube has not endorsed these markets, and any references to YouTube are purely descriptive, indicating no formal affiliation or endorsement by YouTube. The resolution hinges solely on the publicly available chart data for the specified date and ranking position.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare prediction market odds to traditional analyst forecasts for this type of event, as predicting viral music video success is highly subjective. However, this market provides a unique view of collective intelligence, aggregating the predictions of many individuals. If analysts were to make predictions, they would likely focus on factors like artist popularity, promotional efforts, and genre trends. The wisdom of the crowd in this market may offer a different perspective, potentially identifying under- or over-valued outcomes based on a broader range of information and intuition.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices will adjust accordingly, providing a real-time assessment of the likelihood of each music video achieving the runner-up position. The market’s depth and volume indicate the level of confidence traders have in their predictions.
This market resolves around Oct 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on identifying the music video that achieves the runner-up position in terms of global views on YouTube for the specified date, September 18, 2026. The final result will be determined by publicly available data and verified against credible sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. The outcome will reflect the collective assessment of the market participants up to the resolution date.
Several signals and events could significantly impact this market. Unexpected viral trends on platforms like TikTok or Instagram could boost a music video's popularity, shifting the odds. Major promotional campaigns or celebrity endorsements could also influence viewership. Furthermore, the release of highly anticipated music videos from popular artists around the same time could create competition and affect the relative chances of each contender. Any news or events impacting the artists involved, such as controversies or positive publicity, could also move this market before Oct 2, 2026.
