TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,590,312
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,439,516,703
404,175
Markets across
30,277
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,685
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 3, 3:43 AM EST
Limitless
This market will resolve to "YES" if Cristiano Ronaldo starts the Portugal vs Croatia FIFA World Cup 2026 Round of 32 match scheduled for July 2, 2026, 23:00 UTC, and is subsequently substituted off during regular time (90 minutes plus stoppage time only). The substitution must be completed (Ronaldo has left the pitch and his replacement has entered) and recorded in the Lineup section of the official FIFA.com match report for this specific game. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "NO." Substitutions made during extra time do not count. If the match is not played and completed with an official result by September 2, 2026, 12:00 UTC, this market will resolve to "NO." If the data on the website is unavailable for 72 hours after the match is completed, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
This market will resolve to "YES" if Cristiano Ronaldo starts the Portugal vs Croatia FIFA World Cup 2026 Round of 32 match scheduled for July 2, 2026, 23:00 UTC, and is subsequently substituted off during regular time (90 minutes plus stoppage time only). The substitution must be completed (Ronaldo has left the pitch and his replacement has entered) and recorded in the Lineup section of the official FIFA.com match report for this specific game. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "NO." Substitutions made during extra time do not count. If the match is not played and completed with an official result by September 2, 2026, 12:00 UTC, this market will resolve to "NO." If the data on the website is unavailable for 72 hours after the match is completed, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional sportsbook lines because they reflect real-time trader conviction rather than fixed odds set by oddsmakers. In this market, participants continuously update their bets based on team news, injury reports, and tactical analysis, whereas sportsbooks adjust less frequently and incorporate margin. Prediction markets can sometimes offer sharper pricing on niche outcomes like player substitution patterns, since traders with specialized knowledge compete directly on the outcome.
On Limitless, this market is priced through an automated market maker or order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing each outcome. On Limitless, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each share reflects the collective probability assigned by all active traders; as new information emerges or sentiment shifts, the bid-ask spread adjusts accordingly. Liquidity and trading volume directly influence how tightly prices are quoted and how easily you can enter or exit a position.
This market resolves around Jul 3, 2026, after the match between Ronaldo's team and Croatia concludes. The outcome is determined by whether Ronaldo both starts the match and is substituted off during play. Resolution is verified against credible public sources such as official match records and sports news outlets to confirm the final lineup and substitution events.
Key catalysts include official team news regarding Ronaldo's fitness, lineup announcements from coaching staff, and any injury updates in the days leading up to July 2. Tactical previews and analyst commentary on expected playing time can shift trader positioning significantly. Once the match begins, live substitution decisions will immediately resolve the outcome, so pre-match signals—such as confirmed starting lineups released a few hours before kickoff—typically drive the largest price movements in this market.