TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 3, 8:26 AM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks the final set score of the 2026 Wimbledon Men's Singles Round of 32 match between Roman Safiullin and Joao Fonseca on July 3. The market resolves based on the exact match outcome in sets.
The market resolves to Yes for the outcome matching the final set score of the 2026 Wimbledon Men's Singles Round of 32 match. Possible outcomes include Roman Safiullin winning 3-0, 3-1, or 3-2, or Joao Fonseca winning 3-0, 3-1, or 3-2. If the match does not occur before play begins due to injury, walkover, forfeiture, or cancellation, the market resolves to a fair price. If the match is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled match concludes within two weeks. If a player retires, markets that can be unconditionally settled based on completed play resolve accordingly; those that cannot are resolved to Fair Market Price at the Exchange's discretion.
Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and protect their margin, while prediction markets aggregate the beliefs of many independent traders competing for profit. This market aggregates trader conviction about the exact final score, which can differ meaningfully from what a sportsbook quotes. Comparing the two can reveal where the crowd sees value or where consensus is weak, though both sources offer useful perspective on likely outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders submit bids and asks for each exact-score outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of any outcome reflects the marginal trade—the last buyer and seller to agree on a price—and moves as new orders flow in or existing positions are closed. Higher prices indicate stronger trader confidence in that score occurring, while lower prices suggest skepticism. You can enter limit or market orders to express your own forecast.
This market resolves around Jul 3, 2026, once the match between Safiullin and Fonseca concludes and the final score is verified against credible public sources. The outcome is determined by the exact number of games or sets won by each player, depending on the tournament format. Your position settles based on whether the final score matches the outcome you held shares in at resolution.
Key catalysts include player injury reports, recent form and head-to-head records, court surface conditions, and any pre-match commentary from analysts or the players themselves. Betting action from professional traders or sharp money can also shift odds quickly. As the match date approaches, updated rankings, seeding changes, or withdrawal announcements may reshape expectations. During the match itself, early set or game results will drive sharp repricing as traders update their forecasts based on live performance.