TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 26, 7:10 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on predicting exactly which round will see a fighter win via knockout, technical knockout, submission, or disqualification in an upcoming mixed martial arts bout. Outcomes also include scenarios where the fight concludes by decision, draw, or no contest across all scheduled rounds.
The event determines whether Rodolfo Bellato or Christian Edwards will achieve a victory by knockout (KO), technical knockout (TKO), submission, or disqualification (DQ) within a specific round of their scheduled fight on September 26, 2026. There are separate markets for wins occurring in Round 1, Round 2, or Round 3 for each fighter. A market resolves to 'Yes' only if the specified fighter secures a qualifying win in the designated round. If either competitor wins by decision, or if the fight ends in a draw or no contest at any point, the 'Decision / Draw / No Contest' market resolves to 'Yes,' and no round-specific market will resolve positively. Technical decisions are treated as decisions for settlement purposes and do not count toward a round victory. The fight must proceed as originally scheduled; any changes to the matchup or fight structure could affect market resolution.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a different kind of wisdom than sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often incorporate factors like promotional offers and risk management into their pricing, while this market is driven purely by the collective predictions of traders. You may find that this market offers a different perspective on the likely outcome compared to traditional sportsbooks, potentially identifying discrepancies in perceived probabilities. It’s common to see differences emerge as new information becomes available and market participants update their assessments.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders can buy and sell contracts representing the probability of each outcome. The price of each contract reflects the market’s current expectation of that outcome’s likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and place orders, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market odds are constantly updated based on the latest information and collective intelligence of the participants. The goal is to create a market that accurately forecasts the result of the Bellato vs. Edwards fight.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Bellato vs. Edwards fight, specifically determining which fighter achieved victory in the round as defined by the event organizers. The platform will verify the result against reliable sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the winning outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on the losing outcome will not.
Several factors could influence this market leading up to Sep 27, 2026. Any news regarding fighter injuries, changes in training regimens, or even pre-fight press conference statements could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected analysis from reputable combat sports analysts or significant betting activity in traditional sportsbooks could also impact the odds. Furthermore, any updates on the fighters’ physical or mental preparation, or even perceived changes in their strategies, could lead to fluctuations in the market as traders adjust their predictions about the Bellato vs. Edwards fight.