TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Rio Ave FC vs. Moreirense FC
polymarket
kalshi

Rio Ave FC vs. Moreirense FC

Volume:
$340,181

Moreirense

 - Kalshi

Moreirense - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Feb 17, 2026

Closed: Feb 16, 6:15 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Moreirense

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$5,304
$109,253
N/A
N/A
$76,599
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Rio Ave

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$3,816
$71,290
N/A
N/A
$57,045
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$4,040
$58,995
N/A
N/A
$40,956
Settled
No
polymarket

Moreirense FC

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$54,330
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Rio Ave FC

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$30,893
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Draw (Rio Ave FC vs. Moreirense FC)

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,420
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group covers the professional Liga Portugal soccer match between Rio Ave FC and Moreirense FC scheduled for February 16, 2026. Markets across platforms are betting on the three mutually exclusive outcomes: Rio Ave win, Moreirense win, or draw, all measured at 90 minutes plus stoppage time.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Cancellation handling divergence: Polymarket applies asymmetric resolution (No for win/loss, Yes for draw), while Kalshi resolves all outcomes to Yes. This creates different payoff structures only in the rare cancellation scenario.Hero tip: In normal match completion, both platforms resolve identically. Only if the match is canceled entirely with no makeup game will outcomes differ. Monitor Liga Portugal for any cancellation announcements. For trading purposes, assume the match will be played as scheduled; the cancellation divergence is a low-probability edge case.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Win/loss markets resolve No if match is canceled with no makeup. Draw market resolves Yes if canceled. Quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve No' (win/loss) and 'this market will resolve Yes' (draw).
  • Kalshi: All three outcome markets (Tie, Rio Ave win, Moreirense win) resolve Yes if the event occurs. No explicit cancellation clause provided; implicit assumption is that all outcomes resolve Yes if the match happens or is rescheduled. Quote: 'If Tie wins... then the market resolves to Yes' (and same for each team win).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.