TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Rio Ave FC vs. Moreirense FC
Volume:
$340,181
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the professional Liga Portugal soccer match between Rio Ave FC and Moreirense FC scheduled for February 16, 2026. Markets across platforms are betting on the three mutually exclusive outcomes: Rio Ave win, Moreirense win, or draw, all measured at 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Cancellation handling divergence: Polymarket applies asymmetric resolution (No for win/loss, Yes for draw), while Kalshi resolves all outcomes to Yes. This creates different payoff structures only in the rare cancellation scenario.Hero Tip:
In normal match completion, both platforms resolve identically. Only if the match is canceled entirely with no makeup game will outcomes differ. Monitor Liga Portugal for any cancellation announcements. For trading purposes, assume the match will be played as scheduled; the cancellation divergence is a low-probability edge case.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Win/loss markets resolve No if match is canceled with no makeup. Draw market resolves Yes if canceled. Quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve No' (win/loss) and 'this market will resolve Yes' (draw).
- Kalshi: All three outcome markets (Tie, Rio Ave win, Moreirense win) resolve Yes if the event occurs. No explicit cancellation clause provided; implicit assumption is that all outcomes resolve Yes if the match happens or is rescheduled. Quote: 'If Tie wins... then the market resolves to Yes' (and same for each team win).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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