TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 240M
- Kalshi
Above 240M - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 20, 2026
Closed: Jul 18, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks Rihanna's worldwide streaming performance during the week of July 10-16, 2026. Streaming data is collected from major platforms and published by Luminate Data, typically within 48 hours after the tracking week ends.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by Rihanna's total worldwide streams during the July 10-16, 2026 tracking week, as reported by Luminate Data. The event features tiered thresholds ranging from 240 million to 250 million streams, with each threshold representing a separate market outcome. Stream counts exceeding the specified threshold trigger a Yes resolution for that particular tier. Data publication typically occurs within approximately 48 hours following the end of the tracking period.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they aggregate real-money bets from thousands of traders with skin in the game. While music industry analysts may rely on historical streaming trends and chart performance, this market reflects live trader conviction weighted by financial commitment. Analysts typically publish periodic reports, whereas prediction markets update continuously. Over time, markets that incorporate diverse information sources and incentivize accuracy can outperform static forecasts, though both approaches offer complementary insights into expected outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different streaming outcome ranges. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each contract reflects the collective probability traders assign to that outcome, with spreads tightening as volume increases and more participants compete. Traders can enter limit or market orders, and the platform matches buyers and sellers in real time, ensuring transparent price discovery throughout the week.
This market resolves around Jul 20, 2026, at which point the outcome is confirmed against verified streaming data from credible public sources. The specific outcome depends on whether actual weekly streams fall within the predicted range or threshold established at market creation. Once the event period closes and final streaming figures are published, the market settles automatically based on which outcome bracket the actual data supports, ensuring all traders receive payouts according to their positions.
Several catalysts could shift odds in this market: new Rihanna music releases or surprise drops, chart debuts or playlist placements on major streaming platforms, viral social media moments, or announcements of tours and collaborations. Real-time streaming milestones, chart performance updates, and industry news coverage all influence trader sentiment. Additionally, broader entertainment trends—competing releases, platform algorithm changes, or shifts in listener behavior—can ripple through the market. Traders monitor these signals closely and adjust positions as fresh information emerges.
