TOTAL VOLUME:
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24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 50K
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Above 50K - Kalshi
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 27, 2026
Closed: Sep 27, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the performance of Beck's song "Ride Lonesome" during a specific week in 2026, focusing on how many times the track is streamed in the U.S. The outcome depends on whether the song reaches various streaming milestones, providing insight into its popularity and audience engagement during that period.
Kalshi
The event evaluates multiple streaming thresholds for Beck's song "Ride Lonesome" over the week of September 18–24, 2026, in the U.S. Each market corresponds to a specific streaming benchmark—ranging from 50,000 to 10 million streams—and resolves to "Yes" if the reported Luminate data exceeds that threshold as of 10:00 AM ET on the following Sunday. All markets share the same tracking week and data source, with Luminate acting as a neutral metrics provider unaffected by market outcomes. The structure allows participants to assess the likelihood of the song achieving varying levels of success, from moderate to exceptionally high, within a defined timeframe.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, there is limited publicly available data comparing analyst forecasts specifically for Ride Lonesome’s first-week streaming performance. However, this market allows for a different kind of prediction – a collective forecast from a diverse group of traders. The odds reflect what participants believe will happen, aggregating information and insights that might not be captured in a single analyst’s report. If analysts were to release projections, comparing them to the implied probabilities within this market would be a valuable exercise in assessing the wisdom of the crowd versus expert opinion.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders set the odds by placing buy and sell orders. The price of a contract reflects the probability of a specific outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices will adjust to reflect the collective assessment of the likely streaming numbers for Ride Lonesome. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market is constantly incorporating the latest insights and expectations from participants.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the officially reported streaming numbers for Ride Lonesome during its first week of release. These numbers will be sourced from publicly available data and verified to ensure accuracy. The specific streaming numbers that determine the outcome are defined within the market’s rules on Kalshi, and traders should review those details before participating.
Several factors could influence the trading activity in this market. Early critical reviews of Ride Lonesome, significant social media buzz (both positive and negative), and marketing campaign effectiveness are all potential catalysts. Any news regarding distribution deals or unexpected platform availability could also shift the odds. Furthermore, the performance of similar films released around the same time could provide a comparative benchmark for traders. Monitoring these signals and their potential impact on viewership will be key to understanding movements in this market.
