TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 12, 6:38 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting the point differential specifically in the final quarter of a college football game between Rice and Notre Dame. Each market corresponds to a different threshold of points by which either team must win that quarter to settle the outcome.
The markets resolve based on the point differential in the fourth quarter (excluding overtime) of the Rice vs Notre Dame college football game scheduled for September 12, 2026. For markets where Notre Dame must win by a specified margin, resolution occurs if Notre Dame outscores Rice by more than that margin in the fourth quarter alone. Conversely, markets requiring Rice to win resolve if Rice outscores Notre Dame by more than the stated margin in that quarter. All markets exclusively consider points scored during the fourth quarter, disregarding any points from earlier quarters or overtime periods. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, the markets remain active and resolve according to the final official result. Should the game fail to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve at a fair price, reflecting the uncertainty introduced by the delay. These rules apply uniformly across all specified point-differential thresholds for both teams.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which may be influenced by factors like house bias or initial public perception. While sportsbooks set lines based on their analysis, this market allows individuals to express their own beliefs about the game’s outcome, potentially leading to a different assessment of the probability of various spreads. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges and the event draws closer, as traders react to news and analysis.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract indicates the probability that the actual spread will fall in that range. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective expectation. Currently, the top market on Kalshi is for Notre Dame winning the 4th quarter by over 6.5 points, though the probabilities are constantly shifting based on trading activity.
This market resolves around Sep 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the 4th quarter is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by sports data providers, ensuring an objective determination of whether the actual spread fell within the ranges defined by the contracts traded on Kalshi. The final score difference will be the determining factor for settlement.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Rice or Notre Dame teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to impact the passing or running game, could also shift expectations. Additionally, late-breaking analysis from sports commentators or unexpected betting patterns in traditional sportsbooks could all contribute to fluctuations in the market price leading up to Sep 12, 2026.