TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 19, 5:50 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the potential margin of victory in an upcoming college football game, allowing participants to speculate on how decisively either team might win. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold that determines the outcome.
All markets resolve based on the official point differential from the Rhode Island vs Stony Brook college football game scheduled for September 19, 2026. If Rhode Island wins by exceeding the specified point margin for any market, that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Conversely, if Stony Brook wins by more than the stated margin in markets specific to their victory, those markets resolve to Yes. For games postponed but starting within 48 hours of the original time, all markets remain open and resolve according to the final result. If the game does not commence within 48 hours of its scheduled start time, all markets will resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the specific point differential thresholds.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from those offered by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines to balance action and ensure a profit margin, while this market is driven purely by traders’ beliefs about the outcome. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook odds, it might indicate that prediction market participants have information or insights not yet fully incorporated into the sportsbook lines. It's a good practice to compare both to form a well-rounded perspective.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome, as profitable trades are rewarded. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price of these contracts will adjust, providing a real-time assessment of the likely game result. The current market price represents the collective forecast of all traders.
This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the Rhode Island vs Stony Brook game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the governing body of college basketball. The final score difference will be compared to the various contract spreads offered on Kalshi to determine which contracts will pay out and at what value. Traders holding winning contracts will receive a payout based on the contract’s price at resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Sep 20, 2026. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either Rhode Island or Stony Brook would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team performance, coaching decisions, or even weather forecasts could also impact trader sentiment. Unexpected news regarding team morale or internal conflicts could also play a role. Monitoring these signals and assessing their potential impact on the game’s outcome is key to understanding how this market might evolve.