TOTAL VOLUME:
$148.6b
24H VOL:
$140,317,742
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,817,625,700
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,800,965,112
457,288
Markets across
34,829
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,792
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
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J.D. Vance
all
5 markets
Predict
Limitless
Polymarket
Kalshi
Opinion
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 7, 2028
Latest in Politics
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
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Description
This event group tracks the 2028 Republican presidential nomination across multiple prediction markets. All markets resolve based on whether a named individual wins and accepts the Republican Party's nomination, using official Republican Party sources as the resolution authority.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All platforms apply identical resolution logic: acceptance of the nomination by the individual is required, and official Republican Party sources serve as the definitive authority.Primary resolution logic: Consensus of official Republican Party sourcesCore resolution logic:
- Market resolves to "Yes" only if the individual both wins the nomination AND accepts it
- Any post-nomination replacement of the nominee does not change resolution outcome
- Resolution depends solely on Republican Party official declarations
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Nominee Withdrawal: If the nominated individual withdraws before accepting, the market resolves as "No"
- Contested Convention: Resolution depends on final official party decision, not interim polling or delegate counts
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Kalshi
If Thomas Massie wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Nikki Haley wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Sarah Huckabee Sanders wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Greg Abbott wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party, then the market resolves to Yes. If J.D. Vance wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ron DeSantis wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Glenn Youngkin wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Robert F. Kennedy Jr. wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Vivek Ramaswamy wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Donald J. Trump wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Donald J. Trump Jr. wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Elon Musk wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Brian Kemp wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Matt Gaetz wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Byron Donalds wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Elise Stefanik wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Josh Hawley wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ted Cruz wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Katie Britt wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party, then the market resolves to Yes. If John Thune wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Marco Rubio wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Tulsi Gabbard wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Kristi Noem wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Mike Pence wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Steve Bannon wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Erika Kirk wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Tucker Carlson wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Marjorie Taylor Greene wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Nicki Minaj wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Tom Cotton wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Rand Paul wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ivanka Trump wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Eric Trump wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Pete Hegseth wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Lara Trump wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Spencer Pratt wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jeff Bezos wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Candace Owens wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party, then the market resolves to Yes.
Predict
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Limitless
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Opinion
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on this market often differ from traditional polling averages because traders incorporate more than just current voter preferences — they factor in campaign resources, debate performances, and strategic dynamics. While polls give a snapshot of public opinion, market prices reflect what participants are willing to bet on on a probabilistic basis, which can highlight underdog momentum or establishment backing that polls might miss.
On Polymarket and Kalshi, this market shows price variations due to differences in user bases, liquidity, and trading activity. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, Polymarket currently favors Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? at 44.0%, while Kalshi leans toward Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? at 41.0%. These gaps can also arise from varying levels of public interest or media coverage on each venue, affecting how traders place their bets.
This market resolves around Nov 8, 2028, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result is based on who officially secures the Republican Party's nomination at the national convention, a process documented through party proceedings and media coverage.