TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 16, 9:04 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Francesco Maestrelli and Arthur Nagel in the Rennes, originally scheduled for September 14, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Francesco Maestrelli' if Francesco Maestrelli advances against Arthur Nagel. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Nagel' if Arthur Nagel advances against Francesco Maestrelli. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Francesco Maestrelli and Arthur Nagel in the Rennes, originally scheduled for September 14, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Francesco Maestrelli' if Francesco Maestrelli advances against Arthur Nagel. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Nagel' if Arthur Nagel advances against Francesco Maestrelli. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially differing from those offered by traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on statistical models and the perceived biases of the betting public, while this market allows anyone to express their view. If sportsbook odds suggest a clear favorite, it’s interesting to see if this market assigns a significantly different probability to the same outcome. Discrepancies can arise from differing information or simply variations in opinion about the Maestrelli vs Nagel match.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts to reflect the evolving consensus. This dynamic pricing allows for a real-time assessment of expectations surrounding the Maestrelli vs Nagel match, based solely on the collective intelligence of the traders on Polymarket.
This market resolves around Sep 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the result of the Maestrelli vs Nagel match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result declared by the governing body of the event. The platform will then determine the winning outcome and distribute payouts to those who correctly predicted the result. Traders should monitor official sources for updates as the resolution date approaches to understand how the event will be finalized and this market settled.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Sep 21, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in coaching strategies, or unexpected performance in preceding matches for either Francesco Maestrelli or Arthur Nagel could shift trader sentiment. Significant media coverage or expert analysis predicting a particular outcome could also drive price movements. Unexpected announcements related to the match’s venue or scheduling could also impact trading activity, as traders reassess the probabilities based on the latest information available.