TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: May 30, 4:52 AM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Taylor Swift's Red - Taylor's Version will accumulate more than 26,763,478 worldwide streams on Luminate during the May 22–28 tracking week. On Kalshi, the probability of exceeding this threshold stands at 2.0%. Resolution will be determined by official Luminate streaming data for that specific week, with results expected by June 1, 2026. The outcome hinges on streaming performance during the May 22–28 tracking period.
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-money consensus from traders betting on Red - Taylor's Version's streaming performance. Unlike traditional analyst forecasts, which rely on historical data and subjective estimates, market odds incorporate live signals from music industry observers, Swift fans, and data analysts actively trading this contract. Analyst predictions for Taylor Swift album performance typically focus on chart position and first-week sales; this market isolates a specific streaming metric over a narrow seven-day window, offering a more granular and dynamic gauge than most published forecasts.
This market resolves on Jun 1, 2026. Resolution is determined by official Luminate streaming data for Red - Taylor's Version during the May 22–28 measurement period. The contract settles to yes if the album records above 26,763,478 streams during that seven-day window, and to no if it records 26,763,478 streams or fewer. Luminate data is the authoritative source for this outcome, ensuring an objective, verifiable settlement based on actual streaming performance rather than subjective interpretation.
Several catalysts could shift market odds before resolution. Major playlist placements on Spotify, Apple Music, or YouTube could accelerate streaming velocity. Taylor Swift promotional activity, social media momentum, or fan campaigns drive engagement. Competing album releases during May 22–28 may cannibalize streams. Chart performance and critical reception influence listener interest. Real-time streaming data leaks or industry reports could signal whether the album is tracking toward the 26,763,478 threshold. Radio play, TikTok virality, and international market performance also shape weekly streaming totals, making these events key drivers of contract repricing.